Healthy Government Spending and Stable Private Sector to dictate GDP growth to 6.3%

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Kenya is looking at 6.3% GDP growth in 2019 CBA has stated. This will be a climb from the current 5.7 % GDP growth leaving a gap of 0.6% GDP to catch up and get up the economy and reach 6.3%, CBK’s projection in their monetary policy statement.

Commercial Bank of Africa Senior Economic Advisor, Executive Office of the President Mbui Wagacha, announced the possible rise during the bank’s fourth Economic Forum to discuss how to achieve growth amid fiscal imbalances brought about by the country’s debt course.

Also discussed in the forum was the sustainability of the GDP above the current 5.7%, a decent shot above the global and sub-Saharan Africa averages of 3.5%. This optimism is predicated on sustained healthy government spending, a resilient private sector, low oil prices, and a fairly stable economic and political landscape

According to CBA Kenya Chief Executive Officer Mr. Jeremy Ngunze, the bank is keen on sparking the conversation and economic thoughts on important financial matters in the country.

Deficit Cut

The National Treasury is expected to cut the deficit in the 2019/2020 financial year to KES572.2 billion or 5% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), from the projected KES635.3 billion (6.3% of GDP) in the year ending June 2019.

The cut is, however, largely based on increasing revenue at a higher pace than expenditure on the back of tax reforms. In the 2019/20 fiscal year, the National Treasury has projected that revenue will rise by 13.6% to KES2.08 trillion, versus a 7.6% increase in expenditure to KES2.7 trillion.

The global economy remains in an expansion phase, growth is evidently a gear lower, impacted by risks such as increased fear of recession, headwinds from trade wars and tighter global liquidity, uncertainty over Brexit, the slowdown in China and the limited scope by major central banks and governments to respond to severe economic shocks.

What is your opinion on the topic?
Melissa Daniels
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