NASA Numbers vs Jubilee Numbers Part 2: Who’s gonna win? #PresidentialDebateKE
Uhuru Kenyatta will trounce Raila Odinga in the forth coming presidential elections with 48% against Raila’s 43%, that is according to the latest Infotrak Research Consulting opinion poll carried out on 24th and 25th June 2017. Earlier, Ipsos Synovate had given the two candidates similar results with Uhuru taking the lead at 47% while Raila taken the second place at 41%. Yet another poll commissioned by The Star gave Uhuru the lead at 52% while Raila coming a distant second at 39%. In our analysis of the IEBC register to dissect the NASA Numbers vs Jubilee Numbers, we gave Uhuru the lead at 50.4%, a similar percentage win margin that he got in the 2013 elections.
Since we published our Talking Numbers -Jubilee 70%+1 Vs NASA 10 Million Strong article, there have been a number of changes in the political scene top being the over drive campaigns by both Jubilee and NASA. Secondly, the IEBC register on which we based the previous analysis has been updated; the update of which saw some 88,602 dead voters expunged from the register. Thirdly, we can now, with some level of certainty, predict how select counties we had identified as likely to vote differently from the 2013 elections are likely to vote in 2017. These counties include Meru, Tharaka Nithi, Bomet, Kericho, Nakuru and Narok that will likely vote differently in favor of NASA; and Bungoma, Busia, Machakos, and Kwale that are likely to vote differently in favor of Jubilee.
It is also important to mention that in this new analysis we have not retained the 2013 turnout. With expectation of rigging in the form of numbers massage, the turnout percentages in Jubilee counties have been elevated by 1 percentage whereas the turnout in NASA strongholds, with exception of Kilifi, Mombasa and Kwale, have been pushed down by 1 percent. Turnout in Kilifi and Mombasa have been pushed up to march the turnout of other coastal counties since the MRC issue has since been eliminated.
With those in mind, we arrived at the following as the likely voting patterns in Jubilee stronghold counties:
From table 1, it can be seen that:
- The total registered voters in Jubilee strongholds are 7,594,210. Of these, 6,908,252 are expected to vote, giving Jubilee stronghold counties an average turnout of 90.96%.
- 35% of voters in Bomet and Kericho are expected to vote NASA, away from the <10% voting pattern in other Jubilee stronghold counties. This is informed by the expected influence Isaac Rutto has in South Rift, and the reliance on how the March 2016 bi-election at Kericho performed.
- 15% of voters in Meru and Tharaka Nithi are expected to vote NASA based on the infiltration NASA has made in the region. Both NASA and Jubilee campaigns in the revealed that NASA has gained some ground in the region.
- The rest of the counties are expected to vote in a manner similar to the 2013 voting pattern.
- Thus Uhuru is expected to garner a total of 5,761,754 votes from Jubilee strongholds whereas Raila is expected to garner 976,384 from Jubilee strongholds.
The story is almost similar in NASA strongholds as shown in the table below:
From table 2, it can be seen that:
- A total of 8,307,655 voters were registered in NASA strongholds. Of these, some 6,901,913 voters are expected to cast their votes, giving an average turnout of 83.08%
- Given the influence of Governor Lusaka in Bungoma and probable influence of both Otuoma and Namwamba in Busia, Jubilee is likely to garner 15% of the Bungoma and Busia votes.
- We had considered that Jubilee could garner up to 30% of Machakos votes due to the influence of Governor Mutua, but the walkout Uhuru Kenyatta experienced at Kenyatta stadium during his Machakos rally made us to drop that figure to 15%.
- Although Jubilee considers Kisii and Nyamira as battlegrounds, the fact that ODM politicians who had decamped to Jubilee had to go back to ODM and seek forgiveness means both Kisii and Nyamira have become NASA strongholds. Jubilee can still garner some 15% of the votes in these counties.
- Thus Uhuru is expected to get some 871,090 votes from NASA strongholds while is expected to get 6,901,913 from NASA strongholds.
Voting pattern in swing counties is expected to remain almost the same as it was in 2013 as shown in the table below. However voting in Kajiado and Narok should shift a little bit since Kajiado was one of the counties that surpassed IEBC’s expectations in new registrations, whereas Narok being a neighboring county to Bomet is expected to have a slight shift towards NASA.
From table 3 it can be seen that:
- The total registered voters in swing counties come to 3,709,558. Of those, 3,055,966 are expected to cast their votes giving an average turnout of 82.4%.
- Other than Narok where NASA is expected to gain a little ground due to Isaac Rutto’s influence, the other swing counties are expected to vote in the 2013 voting patterns.
From tables 1 to 3, it is expected that Uhuru Kenyatta will garner about 8,076,298 votes while Raila Odinga is expected to garner 8,327,805 votes.
It is important to note that if 16,866,131 voters come out to vote (86% turnout), and no vote is invalidated, then the 50% mark will be 8,433,065 votes. This implies that although the effect of the other presidential candidates could be seen as insignificant, their collective influence may deny either Uhuru or Raila from garnering the needed 50%+1 to avoid a runoff.
This article has assumed that the Government may employ state machinery and attempt to rig the 2017 elections. However, the High Court and consequently the Court of Appeal ruling that the announcements of presidential results at constituency levels will be final, and the intention of NASA to send 5 agents to every single polling station, the rigging possibilities should be very minimal. If rigging won’t play a part in the forth coming elections, then we should expect to see a turnout around 82% as indicated by the 2013 turnout in swing counties.
Lowering the turnout to around 82% in Jubilee strongholds and raising turnout to also 82% in NASA strongholds would mean NASA Numbers going up, hence gaining a larger margin against Jubilee.
As at now, however, we should expect a very close election with a very high possibility of a runoff.