Here we love numbers but more so, making sense of what they mean and their origin. Since we are heading to an election that many of the observers think will be close, it is important we look at the numbers being mentioned around by the major parties and coalitions.
NASA 10 Million Strong Votes Vs Jubilee 70% +1 Votes
Who has the numbers and who is dreaming? Let us cut through the propaganda and look at these numbers based on available facts and the realities of the Kenyan Politics
The known facts
- Registered Voters according to the available IEBC numbers are 19,687,563
- Jubilee won the 2013 election by 8000 votes, that was the number above 50%
- Jubilee Candidates just like 2013 is Uhuru Kenyatta and Deputized by William Ruto
- NASA Candidate is Raila Odinga with Wiper Leader Kalonzo Musyoka as the running mate. NASA now has Musalia Mudavadi who vied for presidency in 2013 among their ranks as well as Isaac Rutto
For the sake of this analysis
- Strong Jubilee Counties are the counties that Uhuru won in 2013 by 80% and above
- Leaning Jubilee Counties are the counties that Uhuru won by between 60 % to 79 % of votes in 2013
- Strong NASA counties are the counties that Raila won in 2013 by 80% and above
- Leaning NASA counties are the counties that Raila won in 2013 by between 60% to 79% of votes
- Battle ground counties are the counties that either candidates won by below 60% of the votes
- Raila won all the Western Counties by between 51% to 70% percent but Mudavadi was the main factor on that and him having moved to NASA means all the Western counties become Strong NASA counties
The numbers that Jubilee and NASA are talking about without Factoring in the voters turn out
- Percentage wise NASA 10,000,000 strong votes would translate to winning the race by 50.8%
- While Jubilee winning the race by 70% +1 would mean winning the election by 13,781,295
What Has Changed Since 2013 Elections
- Kisii counties seem to have moved more towards NASA than they were in 2013. The guys who tried to defect to Jubilee had to run back and ask for forgiveness after realizing that the voters were not with them
- With no more MRC manenos in the Coastal region, the voters registration in coastal counties have really gone up. Only coastal counties were registering around 100% and more of the projected numbers by IEBC in the just concluded IEBC registration exercise. This partly explains the effort which has been made by Jubilee in trying to flip the region from NASA to them. Whether they have succeeded, is a story which will only be well told on the August 8th.
- Isaac Ruto and Mudavadi are now within the NASA camp. Mudavadi move means Western Kenya is now totally locked for NASA, while Ruto’s effect is still largely unknown. Somebody mentioned to me that Isaac Ruto’s move might help NASA win more Masaai votes but very little from the Kalenjin heartland including Bomet. So in our analysis Bomet remains a strong Jubilee zone
- Governor Alfred Mutua Moved to Support Jubilee, though there are reports that he is not having it easy with his reelection campaigns, and for that Machakos remain a strong NASA Zone. Ngilu moved from supporting Jubilee to working with Kalonzo or rather not saying anything bad about NASA. That fact has moved Kitui from leaning NASA to strong NASA county
The Analysis Based on The Absolute Numbers of Registered Voters
Jubilee Counties and their Numbers according to IEBC figures
[table id=1 /]
NASA Counties and their Numbers according to IEBC figures
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Battle Ground Counties
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Notes from the above tables, based on absolute voters registration figures by IEBC
- The voters registration from the strong and leaning Jubilee counties add up to 7,605,997
- The voters registration from the strong and Leaning NASA counties add up to 7,986,452
- The voters registration from the battle ground counties add up to 4,055,103
- NASA Strong and leaning counties have 380,455 more registered voters than Jubilee strong and leaning counties
- Out of the ten battle ground counties Raila won eight in 2013 while Uhuru won only two, that is Isiolo and Kajiado
- If you assume that the Battle ground would be divided down in the middle then NASA’s claim of 10 Million strong votes makes sense. That is 7,986,452 + 2,027,551 = 10,014,003
- If you make the same assumption for Jubilee, we are still far away from their 70% +1 (13,781,295) claim. That is 7,605,997 + 2,027,551 = 9,633,549
All the above assumptions and analysis take absolute numbers of the voters registration without factoring in the turn out. NASA starts with 380,455 more registered voters in their strong and leaning counties but if you factor in the turn out based on what happened in 2013 then the swing becomes real and Jubilee moves ahead by 133,856 voters. Let’s look at the numbers after factoring in the 2013 voters turn out.
The Analysis After Factoring in Turnout and % Share of Votes From Battle Ground Counties in 2013
Jubilee Counties and their Numbers according to IEBC figures after factoring 2013 Turn out
[table id=4 /]
NASA Counties and their Numbers according to IEBC figures after factoring in 2013 Turn out
[table id=5 /]
Battle ground counties voters after factoring 2013 turnout and the Percentage share of votes in 2013
[table id=6 /]
Notes From the above tables after factoring in the 2013 voters turn out
- Jubilee strong and Leaning counties voters based on 2013 turn out add up to 6,847,273
- NASA strong and leaning counties voters based on 2013 turn out add up to 6,625,523
- Battle Ground Counties voters based on 2013 turn out add up to 3,380,527
- If you assume that the battle ground counties will go down the way it happened in 2013 in terms of turnout and the percentage share of votes then the Jubilee numbers add to 8,382,032 (6,847,273+1,534,759)
- If you make the same assumption for NASA then their numbers add up to 8,248,176 (6,625,523 +1,622,653)
- In this scenario, Jubilee moves ahead of NASA by 133,856 voters
- The above figures are far below 70% +1 for Jubilee and below 10 Million strong for NASA
- Two counties that NASA had a huge problem when it came to turnout in 2013 were Kilifi (64.9%) and Mombasa(66.6%). The positive news for NASA is that MRC issue that was thought to be the main contributing factor to the low turnout in 2013 in coastal counties is no longer there.
- Still turnout was generally a problem for the NASA strong and leaning counties in 2013, with average being 83% while Jubilee turn out average for their strong and leaning counties was 90%
- All the above analysis are based on the assumption that 2017 turn out will be the same as 2013 which in reality we know is not true but was used for the sake of understanding the numbers which both sides are talking about.
In both the two scenarios the election will be close and we have not factored in the effect of the third parties’ candidates who would chip votes here and there from both the major candidates. In particular, you have to pay attention to Ekuro Aukot in Turkana, Nyagah in Embu, Dida in Isiolo and parts of North Eastern and Jirongo in the pockets of Western Kenya.