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Talking Numbers -Jubilee 70%+1 Vs NASA 10 Million Strong

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Here we love numbers but more so, making sense of what they mean and their origin. Since we are heading to an election that many of the observers think will be close, it is important we look at the numbers being mentioned around by the major parties and coalitions.

NASA 10 Million Strong Votes Vs Jubilee 70% +1 Votes

Who has the numbers and who is dreaming? Let us cut through the propaganda and look at these numbers based on available facts and the realities of the Kenyan Politics

The known facts

  • Registered Voters according to the available IEBC numbers are 19,687,563
  • Jubilee won the 2013 election by 8000 votes, that was the number above 50%
  • Jubilee Candidates just like 2013 is Uhuru Kenyatta and Deputized by William Ruto
  • NASA Candidate is Raila Odinga with Wiper Leader Kalonzo Musyoka as the running mate. NASA now has Musalia Mudavadi who vied for presidency in 2013 among their ranks as well as Isaac Rutto

For the sake of this analysis

  • Strong Jubilee Counties are the counties that Uhuru won in 2013 by 80% and above
  • Leaning Jubilee Counties are the counties that Uhuru won by between 60 % to 79 % of votes in 2013
  • Strong NASA counties are the counties that Raila won in 2013 by 80% and above
  • Leaning NASA counties are the counties that Raila won in 2013 by between 60% to 79% of votes
  • Battle ground counties are the counties that either candidates won by below 60% of the votes
  • Raila won all the Western Counties by between 51% to 70% percent but Mudavadi was the main factor on that and him having moved to NASA means all the Western counties become Strong NASA counties

The numbers that Jubilee and NASA are talking about without Factoring in the voters turn out

  • Percentage wise NASA 10,000,000 strong votes would translate to winning the race by 50.8%
  • While Jubilee winning the race by 70% +1 would mean winning the election by 13,781,295

What Has Changed Since 2013 Elections

  • Kisii counties seem to have moved more towards NASA than they were in 2013. The guys who tried to defect to Jubilee had to run back and ask for forgiveness after realizing that  the voters were not with them
  • With no more MRC manenos in the Coastal region, the voters registration in coastal counties have really gone up. Only coastal counties were registering around 100% and more of the projected numbers by IEBC in the just concluded IEBC registration exercise. This partly explains the effort which has been made by Jubilee in trying to flip the region from NASA to them. Whether they have succeeded, is a story which will only be well told on the August 8th.
  • Isaac Ruto and Mudavadi are now within the NASA camp. Mudavadi move means Western Kenya is now totally locked for NASA, while Ruto’s effect is still largely unknown. Somebody mentioned to me that Isaac Ruto’s move might help NASA win more Masaai votes but very little from the Kalenjin heartland including Bomet. So in our analysis Bomet remains a strong Jubilee zone
  • Governor Alfred Mutua Moved to Support Jubilee, though there are reports that he is not having it easy with his reelection campaigns, and for that Machakos remain a strong NASA Zone. Ngilu moved from supporting Jubilee to working with Kalonzo or rather not saying anything bad about NASA. That fact has moved Kitui from leaning NASA to strong NASA county

The Analysis Based on The Absolute Numbers of Registered Voters

Jubilee Counties and their Numbers according to IEBC figures

Strong Jubilee Counties Registered Voters Leaning Jubilee Counties Registered voters
Total Registered voters of the Strong and Leaning Jubilee Counties 7,605,997
Kiambu
1,173,593
Uasin Gishu
451485
Muranga
590775
West Pokot 178989
Kirinyaga
351162
Nyeri
460,806
Meru
712,378
Embu
315,668
Nyandarua
336,322
Bomet
325,606
Kericho
379,815
Nandi
349,340
Elgeyo Marakwet
178,975
Tharaka Nithi
216,522
Baringo
227,918
Nakuru
948,668
Likipia

239,497
Mandera
168,478
Total6,975,523
630474

NASA Counties and their Numbers according to IEBC figures

Strong NASA counties Registered Voters Leaning NASA Counties Registered Voters
Total Registered voters of the Strong and Leaning NASA Counties 7,986,452
Homabay
476150
Mombasa
596485
Kisumu
548868
Kisii
544753
Siaya
447745
Nyamira
279685
Migori
388967
Turkana
188617

Kakamega
746877
Tana River
118189
Vihiga
267481
Busia
347911
Bungoma
559897
Machakos
627168
Kitui
477655
Makueni
421180
Kilifi
510484
Kwale
282436
Taita Taveta
155904
Total
6,258,723
1,727,729

Battle Ground Counties

Battle Ground Counties
Registered Voters
Total registered Voters for The Battle Ground Counties
4,055,103
TransNzoia
339832
Nairobi
2304386
Kajiado
409266
Narok
347427
Isiolo
72548
Garissa
132486
Marsabit
143541
Lamu
70224
Samburu
79477
Wajir
155,916

Notes from the above tables, based on absolute voters registration figures by IEBC

  • The voters registration from the strong and leaning Jubilee counties add up to 7,605,997
  • The voters registration from the strong and Leaning NASA counties add up to 7,986,452
  • The voters registration from the battle ground counties add up to 4,055,103
  • NASA Strong and leaning counties have 380,455 more registered voters than Jubilee strong and leaning counties
  • Out of the ten battle ground counties Raila won eight in 2013 while Uhuru won only two, that is Isiolo and Kajiado
  • If you assume that the Battle ground would be divided down in the middle then NASA’s claim of 10 Million strong votes makes sense. That is 7,986,452 + 2,027,551 = 10,014,003
  • If you make the same assumption for Jubilee, we are still far away from their 70% +1 (13,781,295) claim. That is 7,605,997 + 2,027,551 = 9,633,549

All the above assumptions and analysis take absolute numbers of the voters registration without factoring in the turn out. NASA starts with 380,455 more registered voters in their strong and leaning counties but if you factor in the turn out based on what happened in 2013 then the swing becomes real and Jubilee moves ahead by 133,856 voters. Let’s look at the numbers after factoring in the 2013 voters turn out.

The Analysis After Factoring in Turnout and % Share of Votes From Battle Ground Counties in 2013

Jubilee Counties and their Numbers according to IEBC figures after factoring 2013 Turn out

Strong Jubilee Counties
2013 Turnout
Voters after factoring in 2013 Turn out
Leaning Jubilee Counties

2013 Turnout

Voters after Factoring in 2013 Turn out

Total voters of the Strong and Leaning Jubilee Counties after factoring the 2013 turn out6,847,273
Kiambu
90.7%
1,064,449
Uasin Gishu
86.1%
388729
Muranga
93.5%
552,375
West Pokot89.6%160374
Kirinyaga
91.1%
319,909
Nyeri
92.9%
428,089
Meru
88.2%
628,317
Embu
87.8%
277,157
Nyandarua
93.7%
315,134
Bomet
90.0%
293,045
Kericho
90.5%
343,733
Nandi
89.7%
313,134
Elgeyo Marakwet
91.8%
164,299
Tharaka Nithi
89.4%
193571
Baringo
90.7%
206722
Nakuru
88.6%
840520
Likipia

90.2%
216026
Mandera
84.1%
141690


Total6,298,170549,103



NASA Counties and their Numbers according to IEBC figures after factoring in 2013 Turn out

Strong NASA counties
2013 Turn Out
Registered Voters
Leaning NASA Counties
2013 Turn Out
Registered Voters
Total Registered voters of the Strong and Leaning NASA Counties 6,625,523
Homabay
94.1%
448,057
Mombasa
66.6%
397,259
Kisumu
90.4%
496,177
Kisii
84.4%
459,772
Siaya
92.5%
414,164
Nyamira
83.7%

234,096
Migori
92.0%
357,850
Turkana

76.2%
143,726
Kakamega
83.7%
625,136
Tana River81.3%96,088
Vihiga
82.6%
220939
Busia
87.9%
305,814
Bungoma
85.5%
478,712
Machakos
83.6%
524,312
Kitui
85.0%
406,007
Makueni
84.6%
356,318
Kilifi
64.9%
331,304
Kwale
72.0%
203,354
Taita Taveta
81.1%
126,438

Total
5,294,5821,330,941

Battle ground counties voters after factoring 2013 turnout and the Percentage share of votes in 2013

Battle Ground Counties
2013 Turn Out
Voters
Jubilee % Share of votes 2013
NASA % share of votes in 2013
Total registered Voters for The Battle Ground Counties after factoring 2013 Turn out 3,380,527
TransNzoia
81.7%
277,643
38.1
47.1
Nairobi
81.6%
1,880,379
47.2
49.4
Kajiado
87.1%
356,471
52.8
44.8
Narok
89.8%
311,989
46.7
50.6
Isiolo
87.5%
63,480
55.7
29.8
Garissa
79.8%
105,724
45.6
48.9
Marsabit

85.9%
123,302
47.3
48.8
Lamu
84.0%
58,988
40.652.7
Samburu
88.3%
70,178

41.1
57.8
Wajir84.9%
132,37339.049.9
The average Percentage votes by Jubilee and NASA (Cord) in 2013

45.4

48.0
Assumed share of votes based on 2013 percentage share of votes
1,534,7591,622,653

Notes From the above tables after factoring in the 2013 voters turn out

  • Jubilee strong and Leaning counties voters based on 2013 turn out add up to 6,847,273
  • NASA strong and leaning counties voters based on 2013 turn out add up to 6,625,523
  • Battle Ground Counties voters based on 2013 turn out add up to 3,380,527
  • If you assume that the battle ground counties will go down the way it happened in 2013 in terms of turnout and the percentage share of votes then the Jubilee numbers add to 8,382,032 (6,847,273+1,534,759)
  • If you make the same assumption for NASA then their numbers add up to 8,248,176 (6,625,523 +1,622,653)
  • In this scenario, Jubilee moves ahead of NASA by 133,856 voters
  • The above figures are far below 70% +1 for Jubilee and below 10 Million strong for NASA
  • Two counties that NASA had a huge problem when it came to turnout in 2013 were Kilifi (64.9%) and Mombasa(66.6%). The positive news for NASA is that MRC issue that was thought to be the main contributing factor to the low turnout in 2013 in coastal counties is no longer there.
  • Still turnout was generally a problem for the NASA strong and leaning counties in 2013, with average being 83% while Jubilee turn out average for their strong and leaning counties was 90%
  • All the above analysis are based on the assumption that 2017 turn out will be the same as 2013 which in reality we know is not true but was used for the sake of understanding the numbers which both sides are talking about.

In both the two scenarios the election will be close and we have not factored in the effect of the third parties’ candidates who would chip votes here and there from both the major candidates. In particular, you have to pay attention to Ekuro Aukot in Turkana, Nyagah in Embu, Dida in Isiolo and parts of North Eastern and  Jirongo in the pockets of Western Kenya.

What is your opinion on the topic?
Kennedy Kachwanya
Lead Blogger at Kachwanya.com
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Kennedy Kachwanya is a technology blogger interested in mobile phones both smart and dumb, mobile apps, mobile money, social media, startups ecosystem and digital Savannah. New media must not forget the strength of old tech.
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